Thanksgiving threw a wrinkle into the patterns I thought were developing over the 2015 season.
And for whatever reason, I think that successful teams will continue to be successful, generally speaking, as the year goes on. However, that didn't quite turn out to be the case for a few teams.
The most notable game was Sunday night's Denver/New England matchup that saw the Pats fall out of the #1 spot for the first time in what seems like a year. That leaves one undefeated team, and I think you know who's #1 now.
That said, there still aren't a lot of "good" teams in the league. Yes, there are more teams with winning records at the moment, but a lot of them are 6-5 and that's not what I would consider to be "good".
My picks were fairly abysmal, which seems to be the usual in this stretch. I had to bet on Baltimore (and thus, that blocked FG that turned into a touchdown) just to get to 8-8. Monkeys on typewriters...yeesh.
Here are the Rankings for Week 12:
1.) Carolina (11-0) [+1]
Cam Newton didn't throw a TD and Carolina beat the Cowboys easily. Hard, and probably insane to argue that they're not the best team right now. The schedule looks Charmin soft, so any losses would be fairly seismic upsets. It's hard to imagine any team straight up outplaying Carolina at this point, which isn't something I ever thought I would say. They're hardly the juggernaut one would expect. In fact, they're a lot more like Seattle than the alleged "pass-happy" teams that are out there...somewhere.
Next opponent: at New Orleans (12/6)
2.) New England (10-1) [-1]
It would've taken a miracle to overcome the loss of Gronk. That said, taking the game to OT without him was quite the feat. I guess it shows that as long as Brady is in there at QB, great things can happen. But with all the guys lost to injury right now (most of whom will come back, it should be said), New England is looking vulnerable at a critical time. As soon as they can clinch, the pressure will be abated, but that might take a couple weeks longer than previously expected. Still a great team, still a Super Bowl threat, but I guess my expectations have been tempered just a bit. Meaning that since the undefeated season is out of the picture and the injury bug has hit them, the ceiling for greatness has been lowered.
Next opponent: vs. Philadelphia (12/6)
3.) Arizona (9-2) [no change]
I couldn't say for certain whether or not San Francisco wanted to make the game sloppy. Arizona definitely rose to the challenge and looked as poor as they have since the loss to St. Louis. They were utterly pathetic in every facet, only winning due to a Palmer TD scramble. Imagine that, one of the allegedly least mobile QB's in the league winning a game by running it into the end zone. It really boggles the mind! And he's looked upon as an MVP candidate? The record is nice, and the games up until this past Sunday were good, but damn. I guess I'm cautiously optimistic at best about Palmer, but Brady and Cam Newton have looked much better.
Next opponent: at St. Louis (12/6)
4.) Denver (9-2) [no change]
There's probably a bit of luck involved in every win. But late Sunday night when Denver put together their touchdown drives, they didn't look merely lucky. I won't excuse the Pats based on injuries; Denver came out and took advantage late and that's why they won in overtime. I think C.J. Anderson had the right idea with the sweep out to the left. Most teams are so concerned with running the ball up the middle (in the gaps between the guards and center, I wager) that they forget that if they can get off-tackle, the potential for big gains is a lot better. Anderson showed that twice Sunday night. Made those runs a bit more interesting than the garden variety.
Next opponent: at San Diego (12/6)
5.) Cincinnati (9-2) [no change]
I don't want to beat a dead horse, but it's obvious that afternoon games are right in Cincy's wheelhouse. They shut down St. Louis and made them look foolish. And now they have a second date with a hapless Cleveland team that finds new and intriguing ways to lose seemingly every week. I'd say that something might go wrong for the Bengals...but it's another afternoon game and we know how those turn out.
Next opponent: at Cleveland (12/6)
6.) Minnesota (8-3) [+2]
A slight uptick, though I remain unconvinced. This week's game seems like one tailor-made for the Vikings to lose and Bridgewater to look hilariously bad.
Next opponent: vs. Seattle (12/6)
7.) Green Bay (7-4) [-1]
Much like Atlanta (for whom the bottom has fallen out), the swoon in Green Bay is real. Some have suggested that the solution is for head coach Mike McCarthy to go back to being the primary play-caller. I scoff at that. His overly conservative scheme lost the team a playoff game last season. Rodgers hasn't looked his best since before the game at San Francisco. Personally, after the loss to the Bears, I find myself doubting his elite status. To me, an elite QB not only wins that game, but wins it handily.
Next opponent: at Detroit (12/3)
8.) Seattle (6-5) [+2]
As it turned out, Pittsburgh's secondary undermined Roethlisberger's effort against the Seahawks. Also, Russell Wilson came up huge. It's the kind of game that gives those of us who enjoy passing hope that they'll finally drop the 1950's offense and go with something a bit more modern. Apparently the league as a whole is "pass-happy", but I really don't see that in a lot of places. And when it comes to Seattle (and a few others), running is clearly the primary mode of attack. It's boring, but it worked two years ago. What looks like a tough test this week is leavened slightly by the fact that Bridgewater still isn't on par with Roethlisberger or Palmer. But will Seattle wilt on the road? That's one thing to look for.
Next opponent: at Minnesota (12/6)
9.) NY Jets (6-5) [-]
Outside of New England, the AFC East is shaky. But the Jets have done just enough despite their record to get people talking. They would have to finish on quite the streak to get to 10 wins, though. Then again, it doesn't really matter how many wins you have if you make the playoffs. And if the Jets make the playoffs, I think they can make some noise. I wouldn't necessarily put any huge sums of money on it, but I wouldn't be surprised either.
Next opponent: at NY Giants (12/6)
10.) Kansas City (6-5) [-]
At 1-5, I didn't expect the Chiefs to do much of anything the rest of the season. Five wins in a row have them back in the thick of things. I'm not sure what that means for the rest of the season, but as of right now they're one of the stronger teams in the league, and that's in spite of the fact that their QB lacks a little something when throwing it. Funnily enough, it was success in the passing game that led them to their win against Buffalo, aided and abetted by turnovers.
Next opponent: at Oakland (12/6)
That's all for this week. See you next week.
