2014 Wild Card Weekend

So that happened.

When you pick the results straight up and then go 1-3, I would say there's bound to be some disappointment.  Especially when San Diego and San Francisco are among the teams moving on.  Also, what's up New Orleans? You couldn't do a damn thing on the road (and the first half was similarly vomit-inducing), and now you're world-beaters.

Blegh.

I didn't even watch a second of the SF/GB game, as I've been battling insomnia and the rampant concern that the sky is falling onto my head.

My issues aside, let's take a quick look at these four games and see what, if anything, we can learn from them.

The first game was obviously the best.  KC went into Indy and a shootout ensued.  This despite the fact that Alex Smith was one of the quarterbacks and Indy has been without their best WR, Reggie Wayne, since Week 7. This is one reason the playoffs are so damn frustrating and unpredictable.  Crazy nonsense like this happens and you might as well go along for the ride, because once the games start, the predictions are moot.  I certainly wasn't expecting Indy to go down 28 and then come back to win.

And yet, here we are.

As it turns out, that was the highest scoring game, despite having the lowest margin of victory.

In Cincinnati, the Bengals performed about as well as expected in losing to a San Diego team that probably shouldn't even be here.  In fact, if KC kicker Ryan Succop had made a not-terribly-difficult FG last week, it would have been Pittsburgh in the position that San Diego was in: sitting cozily in a leather recliner, just waiting to throw the ball that dumped Cincinnati into the dunk tank.  Looking back on it, I can't really point to a moment that I thought San Diego wasn't going to win the game.  Even when Dalton was keeping it clean, I wondered aloud when the inevitable INT's were coming.

And what do you know, two of them came in the second half!  Luckily for the Chargers, they were in a position to capitalize...sort of.  They ended up being more lucky than good, really, as their performance after turning Cincy over was pretty abhorrent.  They gave up easy 4th down conversions in order to punt (after letting the play clock run to 0, of course) and ran in an unnecessary TD to give the Bengals the ball back after they had used all their timeouts.

One might ask if the above really means anything.  The answer is no, this week.  Next week, they need to tighten it up.  We'll see if Ryan Mathews is available.  If not, it's up to Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead to run the ball.

The Saints did the improbable and unlikely, going into Philly and pulling out a late win.  As the sixth seed, they are the road warriors; they cannot host a game throughout the playoffs because they finished below all the other NFC teams.  So far, that's not a bad thing.  Next week they head to Seattle, where they utterly failed to show up from the word "go" just a few weeks ago. Suffice it to say that Drew Brees has to play well on every possession he gets.

San Francisco also pulled out a late win on the road.  Since I didn't see the game, I can't really say much more than that.

I'm guessing Aaron Rodgers goofed somehow.  Either that, or Green Bay's suspect defense got gashed (as usual).  In any case, I am starting to wonder about the legitimacy of Rodgers' "elite QB" status.  At the moment, it's not looking like an accurate descriptor, seeing as they finished 8-7-1 (thanks to him getting injured, to be fair) and losing another playoff game at home to a team with little offense.  When I say little offense, I mean that SF is entirely inconsistent in their passing attack.  Kaepernick can barely throw the ball down the field.  And yet, he slices through GB's defense.  Hot knives scare the shit out of butter.  Et cetera.

What's on tap for next week?  Glad you asked.  Indianapolis heads to New England.  San Diego, as the sixth seed in the AFC, gets the unenviable task of breaking the tie with Denver, as the two teams meet for the third time this season.  San Francisco heads to Carolina, while the Saints, as the aforementioned sixth seed in the NFC, head to Seattle.  To say that it's tough sledding for the teams that won this weekend is understating it just a bit.

That said, I would wager that Indianapolis has the best chance of pulling the upset.  Then again, it might be San Francisco.

In any event, I'm not betting on the Saints.  Maybe that will do them well.

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 17 (SEASON FINALE)

At last, the regular season is over.  This weekend (Saturday & Sunday) is Wild Card weekend, where the top seeds in each conference take a much-needed rest while the other teams battle it out to decide who's going where next week.

It's exciting stuff, but it hardly ever goes the way I want it to.

So, what about the 2013 season?  I didn't really plan out anything, so I don't have "Red's NFL Awards" or some nonsense like that.  That's actually not a bad idea, even if just a blogger nobody really knows (or, God forbid, reads).

At any rate, let's move past my own self-serving nature.

In 2013, Denver was the "most powerful" team, ranking in the top 5 every week I posted a set of Rankings (to wit, I missed Week 7 because I was on vacation).  Seattle was a close second with 14 of a possible 16 weeks in the top 5.  New Orleans and New England weren't too bad either: they were in the top 5 12 out of 16 weeks.  Does this really mean anything for the playoffs? No, not particularly.  It just means they were good in the regular season, especially in Denver's case.  That, and despite the number of teams that finished with 10 or more wins, there were never enough of them at any one time to get Denver out of the top 5, which is quirky if nothing else.

I think the only problem I had with the final week was that Pittsburgh didn't make it into the playoffs.  It was looking good for them up until the 4th quarter of the Chiefs/Chargers game.  Technically, it was looking good for 59:52.  Then in the last 8 seconds, Ryan Succop missed a field goal slightly to the right and the Chargers eventually won in OT.  Chargers are in, Steelers are out.  If it were Pittsburgh going to Cincinnati, I'd bet the house on them. Since it's San Diego (and we have no idea if they can force 4 INT's out of Dalton or take advantage of such a situation if they do, unlike effing Baltimore), I wouldn't bet squat.

Also, the Cowboys finished 8-8 and Jason Garrett is apparently safe.  I'm not sure which of those is more disappointing.

Here are the Rankings for Week 17:

1.) Denver (13-3) [no change]
 They were pretty much the best team from the word "go", the Thursday night opening demolition of the Ravens.  Peyton Manning is the MVP, the only thing to figure out now is who's going to be a rebel and vote for someone else. Oh, and there's the whole playoff lack of success story that will be repeated ad nauseam until he gets another Super Bowl.

2.) Seattle (13-3) [no change]
 Without a doubt the best team in the NFC and damn near unbeatable at home.  Seattle's success is a bit surprising to me, at least, because they have a throwback offense (literally, since they hardly throw the ball downfield and are content to run it with Marshawn Lynch ad infinitum) and attempt to win with defense in a time when neither one ought to work.  Somehow, it does work, and the Seahawks are tied for the best record in the NFL.

3.) Carolina (12-4) [no change]
 Probably the most surprising of the teams in this top 10.  When they started 1-3, I had no expectation of them doing anything good, especially finishing 12-4 and making the playoffs.  They also won the NFC South over the Saints (more on that below).

4.) San Francisco (12-4) [no change]
 Credit is due to Jim Harbaugh, who took a team to a Super Bowl earlier this year and then got them back into the playoffs.  Hard to believe, especially when one considers just how limited that offense is.  Their defense is for real, but Kaepernick can barely throw the ball most days.  The running game is fairly strong, I suppose.  It doesn't interest me, and San Francisco moving on is not something I look forward to.

5.) New England (12-4) [no change]
 Tom Brady had a "bad" year according to most metrics, yet the Pats are 12-4, won their division (again), and get a first-round bye.  Pretty impressive stuff considering the player movement prior to the season and the eventual loss of Rob Gronkowski.  Are they going to win the Super Bowl?  Probably not, but it's not like I expect them to lose to anyone other than Denver, either.

6.) Indianapolis (11-5) [+2]
 Some expected a bit of a step back from the Colts in Luck's second year.  I was not one of those people.  In fact, I wondered aloud just what would prevent them from winning the AFC South.  The answer is nothing, because none of the other three teams put up anything resembling a fight.  I guess Tennessee is the closest, but that's not saying much.  They also get a rematch with the Chiefs in the first round, which should mean another win, but like I said above, these things hardly ever work out how I want them to.

7.) New Orleans (11-5) [+2]
 I expected more from the Saints, really.  To finish 11-5 and second in their division is pretty disappointing to me.  They whupped Carolina at home (as expected), but their road performances were all sorts of terrible.  They didn't show up at Seattle and played poorly in Jersey, St. Louis, Carolina, and Tampa (yet somehow won that one due to typically moronic Bucs nonsense).  It's hard to believe they actually went to Chicago and won, but that did happen. I don't know what to think of the Saints now.  They're stuck with the 6th seed and given how they've played on the road lately, their chances of advancement have to be in the 0-10% range.  This is particularly galling because Drew Brees is one of the few bonafide elite QB's in the game today, he's got weapons galore, a decent if unspectacular running game, and a defense that is opportunistic and quite good.  So basically, I'm throwing my hands up and walking away.

8.) Kansas City (11-5) [+2]
 A meaningless game (for them) results in the Chargers making the playoffs. The fall is more cosmetic than anything.

9.) Cincinnati (11-5) [-]
 I had to let the Bengals back in thanks to them winning the AFC North and being flat-out better record-wise than Green Bay or San Diego.  That said, I don't expect much out of this team, unless you count INT's and general buffoonery.  And an inevitable loss in either the Wild Card or Divisional Round.

10.) Philadelphia (10-6) [no change]
 Philly won the NFC East by beating Dallas in Jerryworld.  As expected, they took advantage of a late turnover to seal it.  At least this time it was Orton and not Romo.  I guess that's something.  At any rate, Philly might actually be dangerous.  I don't expect them to go into Seattle and win, necessarily, but I think they'd make a game of it since they can actually play offense (unlike Carolina or San Francisco).  However, their defense is not great. Actually, it's probably not even "good".  I don't think that's a problem if they're putting up 40 or more.  But can they put up 40 or more against the defenses they could potentially face?

That's all for this season.  I'm always unsure as to how I'll cover the playoffs, or if there's actually a point to it.  That said, if I do post anything, it'll be here on NHC, likely after all the games have been played next week.

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 16

I guess it's now a given that unforeseen crap will occur in any given week. This week it was the supposed favorite losing at home for the first time in what seems like a millennium.  That's right, Seattle went down and it was one of the ugliest games I've seen this year.  Actually, I didn't even see that much of it because the Red Zone channel was covering other games.  At any rate, it's not like the Rankings are totally screwed up, but there was a lot more movement than there should have been.

Probably.

The playoff picture has just about shaken out, but there are a couple of teams that can clinch in the final week.  Obviously, the ones people will be looking at the most are Philly and Dallas, as they play each other Sunday night with the division on the line.  It's been crap for most of the year, but both teams appear to have rounded into form somewhat.  That said, even though my team won (barely), I think Philly looks better.  It doesn't hurt to put up 50, that's for sure.

I'm undecided as to what I'll do as far as the playoffs are concerned.  Power Rankings are pretty useless once the regular season is over, but I should probably write something about the games either as they occur or after they're all finished.  We'll see how it goes; the playoffs are a different animal and one that usually annoys me more than any given week of the regular season.

My picks are usually worse.  That said, I did get 10 right in Week 16.  So I'm finally not being total shit.  Yippie.

Here are the Rankings for Week 16:

1.) Denver (12-3) [+1]
 Peyton & co. regain the top spot with a record-breaking performance and a galling loss by Seattle.  Losing Von Miller to a knee injury hurts an already compromised defense.  We'll see how that affects them in the playoffs.

2.) Seattle (12-3) [-1]
 Really, an inexcusable loss, even considering that Arizona is a division rival. The Seahawks intercepted Palmer FOUR times and still couldn't get points on the board.  I find Seattle's offense to be incredibly boring, much like San Francisco's.  I don't know why they insist on running the ball as much as they do (or how it's so successful in a time when passing is supposedly the better option), but it's really galling to see them pile up so many wins only to disappoint here at the end.

3.) Carolina (11-4) [+1]
 Is Cam Newton clutch?  Not really.  He got a lucky break, again.  Still, it looks like they're a serious contender since they can play defense (despite it being legislated out of the league) and Newton can kinda throw, sometimes.

4.) San Francisco (11-4) [+1]
 NaVorro Bowman was the hero last night.  Somehow, when SF lined up on defense for that play, I felt that something good was going to happen for them.  What do you know, they get the right bounce and Bowman takes an INT 89 yards to the end zone.  That seals up the game and San Francisco is looking a lot better today.

5.) New England (11-4) [+1]
 Just when you think they're due to stumble (again), Brady and Belichick say "not so fast".  A pretty incredible win.

6.) Kansas City (11-4) [-3]
 I haven't lost faith in KC.  Then again, I didn't have that much to begin with.

7.) Arizona (10-5) [+1]
 I still don't think Arizona is a contender.

8.) Indianapolis (10-5) [+1]
 A surprising win for the Colts.  I hardly expected them to beat KC (though I did pick it, so there's that).

9.) New Orleans (10-5) [-2]
 Another disappointing performance on the road leads to another loss. The Saints were looking like one of the great teams, and then they went to Seattle, St. Louis, and Carolina...and went 0-3.  Utterly ridiculous.  I think they'll win against Tampa in the final week, if only because they're at home.  Then again, Tampa played them tough....

10.) Philadelphia (9-6) [no change]
 Six losses ensure that Philly stays where it is, despite the very impressive 50+ point performance.  Let's face it, it's their matchup with Dallas that everyone cares about.  The rest was merely a lead-in.  Funny how things turn out, especially in a league where every game supposedly matters more than any individual game in any other league.

Three Games to Watch (Week 17):
Green Bay @ Chicago (FOX)
San Francisco @ Arizona (FOX)
Philadelphia @ Dallas (NBC)

That's all for this week.  See you next week.

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 15

I'm guessing that if there was a result you didn't want in Week 15...things didn't go your way.

Another crapshoot with the picks.  But that's what happens when a bunch of games go bonkers.  So-called contenders went down left and right and pretenders were exposed (I'm looking at you, Dallas).  It was rough all the way around, really.

Here's hoping for better in Week 16, but if the last few weeks have taught me anything, it's that crazy shit is in and predictability is long gone.

Here are the Rankings for Week 15:

1.) Seattle (12-2) [+1]
 Given that they were playing a bad team on the road, it'd be (somewhat) excusable for Seattle to win with a bit of trouble.  Instead, they dominated. Color me surprised.

2.) Denver (11-3) [-1]
 The #1 seed in the AFC went out on Thursday and got beat.  Truly pathetic, especially considering who they lost to.

3.) Kansas City (11-3) [+2]
 Meanwhile, their main competition in the AFC West went out and blew the doors off of Oakland, putting up 56.  That's the highest number of points scored in a single game this season.  Alas, KC's defense gave up 31, so it wasn't quite the runaway the "blew the doors off of Oakland" makes it sound like.

4.) Carolina (10-4) [+2]
 Just when you think New Orleans has the NFC South locked up...they have another inexcusable road loss and Carolina handles a bad team at home. Pathetic.

5.) San Francisco (10-4) [+2]
 A solid, if unspectacular, road win.  But let's face it, they weren't going to look more impressive than Seattle this week.

6.) New England (10-4) [-3]
 Disappointing.

7.) New Orleans (10-4) [-3]
 More disappointing.

8.) Arizona (9-5) [+1]
 Surprisingly, the Cardinals remain in the conversation.  How this is possible, I have no clue.  They're still on the outside looking in since the NFC's wild card teams are quite burly, but they still have a chance.  It's more than I thought I'd say after 15 weeks.

9.) Indianapolis (9-5) [+1]
 Domination.  That is what you do when a division rival comes to your place. You let them have a field goal (maybe) and then proceed to outplay them in every phase of the game.

10.) Philadelphia (8-6) [-2]
 If I expected anything out of the Eagles (aside from disappointment, I suppose), I'd be really disappointed.  I didn't foresee them losing on the road to Minnesota, but at the same time, I'm not terribly surprised that it happened.  Now if only Dallas hadn't failed to capitalize on it....

Three Games to Watch (Week 16):
New Orleans @ Carolina (FOX)
Indianapolis @ Kansas City (CBS)
New England @ Baltimore (CBS)

That's all for this week.  See you next week.

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 9

It was a bit ugly around the league this week.  Lots of teams that people think are "good" or maybe even "great" struggled mightily.  In fact, New England was one of the only teams to put together a consistent effort. They also put up four TD's in the 4th quarter, which makes them look a lot better by default.  Denver was on a bye.  That helped them look good too, since they didn't shit the bed like some teams.

I'm not sure we actually know anything about any of these teams.  One week they could be world-beaters (i.e. the Pats) and the next week they could be losing in OT on a fluke safety (i.e. the Bengals, who will not be returning to the Rankings in 2013; I've had enough of them).  There's not a lot of consistency other than in KC and to be honest, KC has been lucky the last couple of weeks to escape with wins.

We'll have to wait and see how Aaron Rodgers' injury affects Green Bay.  My guess is that they'll fall off until he returns.  Their backup QB situation is not good; Seneca Wallace couldn't complete a pass that wasn't a slant last night, and he had trouble with those, even.

Here are the Rankings for Week 9:

1.) Kansas City (9-0) [no change]
 The defense did their part, scoring two TD's.  The offense could be considered a work-in-progress if there was any sign that it's going to get better at some point this season.  Alex Smith is a bad QB who is propped up by his winning percentage and defenders in the national sports media who refuse to rely on what they see as opposed to the numbers.

2.) Denver (7-1) [no change]
 On a bye, the Broncos don't move up or down, as usual.  They head to San Diego in Week 10.  It should be a good one if both teams show up and play to their capabilities.

3.) Seattle (8-1) [no change]
 Inexcusable first-half effort from the Seahawks against a winless team. What makes it worse is that they were at home, where they are usually unbeatable. Not only that, most teams that go into Seattle barely have a chance of keeping up with the Seahawks.  Not Tampa Bay, apparently.  I get that losing both tackles on the O-line is problematic for the offense in general.  I also get that Russell Wilson is probably still growing into his game as a second-year player.  But that offense looks bad and the second-half comeback doesn't really change that perception.

4.) New England (7-2) [+3]
 Yes, the Steelers are not good this season.  But the Pats just put up 55 points, the most scored in the league so far.  Is this team dangerous with Gronk and Amendola back and healthy (for the moment)?  You bet your ass. Tom Brady hadn't played so well prior to this game, but he came out slinging and the running game worked well enough to take pressure off him too. Dominant effort and one of the few that we saw.

5.) San Francisco (6-2) [no change]
 On a bye, the 49ers don't move up or down, as usual.  They face Carolina at home in Week 10.  Somehow, I bet they end up flustering Cam Newton and forcing him into errors like the ones we saw against Atlanta.

6.) Indianapolis (6-2) [+2]
 Despite taking the first-half off, Indy rallied for yet another 4th quarter comeback and victory.  Andrew Luck was missing Reggie Wayne, obviously. But that didn't seem to affect him in the second-half as he was bombing away to T.Y. Hilton or tossing fades to Coby Fleener.  Impressive effort to come back, but there's no way they should have been down 21-3 in the first place.

7.) New Orleans (6-2) [-3]
 One of the worst efforts I saw this week was without a doubt put forth by the Saints.  I've been saying since the start of the season that they look like a 12-13 win team.  I'm not moving off of that by any means (just look at their division, blegh), but I think I have to doubt them on the road just a bit after their latest gaffe-fest.

8.) Carolina (5-3) [-]
 No, I do not take the Panthers seriously.  If they beat the 49ers, then I'll re-evaluate.

9.) Green Bay (5-3) [no change]
 The Packers might be going down for a while if Rodgers is out for any length of time.

10.) Detroit (5-3) [no change]
 On a bye, the Lions don't move up.  They go to Chicago in Week 10.  Unless Stafford gets injured on a fluke play like Rodgers, I expect the Lions to win pretty handily.

Three Games to Watch (Week 10):
Carolina @ San Francisco (FOX)
Denver @ San Diego (CBS)
Dallas @ New Orleans (NBC)

That's all for this week.  See you next week.

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 8

After a week away, the Rankings look different.  I'm just scrapping what I had and basically reseeding the teams after their Week 8 performances.  Otherwise Denver would be below Seattle and a couple other teams would be lower than they probably deserve to be.  So now, the top ten teams are seeded by record.  Where they go from here is up to them, as I don't anticipate missing any more time in the regular season.

I think Seattle was damn lucky tonight.  Denver and New England in particular had comebacks that shouldn't have been necessary.  And I have to kowtow to Cincinnati now and finally admit that maybe they do belong.  Well, at least I waited until they showed something.  Now they'll probably come out on Thursday and lay an egg just to spite me.

Of course, as a Cowboys fan, how I could not say something about my team? Wow, that was a stinkbomb of a 4th quarter.  Or, really, the last couple minutes of the 4th quarter.  I have yet to hear anyone take Garrett to task for not doing something on 4th & 4, a decision that would have been his to make even though Callahan is calling the plays on offense.  Had they gone for it instead of taking the field goal, they may have crashed and burned.  But they may have kept the Lions from getting the ball and marching down the field.

Also, KC is 8-0.  Well done.

Here are the Rankings for Week 8:

1.) Kansas City (8-0)
 Not sure what's more troubling, the fact that this team is 8-0 with a bottom-third QB or that they've had difficulty with the Texans and Browns, teams they should have walloped with no problem.  Some will want to excuse their greatness based on the schedule.  Not me.  They got a last-place schedule (deservedly so, as they blew last year) and are now making hay as a result of the coaching change and new QB.  Well, I guess the new QB has something to do with it.  The real credit seems to go to Jamaal Charles and the stifling defense that makes plays in the 4th quarter.

2.) Denver (7-1)
 Down 21-7, I was a little concerned.  What did the Broncos do?  Oh, not much...just score 38 unanswered and 31 in the 4th.  It turned into a slopfest with turnovers and sacks galore, but Denver won the game and put up a ton of points again.  Despite losing to Indy, Denver still looks like the team to beat in the AFC, and the defense is rounding into form with Von Miller back in the fold.

3.) Seattle (7-1)
 As I said above, damn lucky.  St. Louis ran the ball all over them and if they had had a QB who could hit the broad side of a barn, they would have won the game, too.  Luckily, Wilson hit Golden Tate for the one big play of the game and that was enough to beat a pretty bad Rams team.  But mark my words, if they have to go on the road in the playoffs, there'll be trouble.  I'm not saying they'll automatically go out, but it won't be a beatdown like a potential home playoff game would.

4.) New Orleans (6-1)

 I was a bit concerned after the loss to New England.  But then Brees & co. righted the ship.  I still think this team wins 12-14.  In their division, I'm not sure how they wouldn't.  People are trying to prop up Carolina, but I'm not buying that for a minute.

5.) San Francisco (6-2)
 The 49ers went international and got a fairly easy win.  Kaepernick is playing well enough, but Frank Gore is the real story.  In a QB-dominated league, Gore is one of the few RB's getting the job done with any consistency.  He's not just marching up and down the field, he's getting into the end zone. Somewhat surprising considering their near-disastrous start, but now it looks like 10-12 wins isn't out of the question.

6.) Cincinnati (6-2)
 It was a long time coming, I guess.  I can't say that I believe Andy Dalton is the guy there, but he's making the doubters like me look pretty stupid.  So let's see what he does next.  Facing the Dolphins on Thursday is kind of a test, in the sense that it should be an easy win if they can get their minds right and bodies ready.  Even if they're lacking something after a huge win, they should still deal the Dolphins another loss easily enough.

7.) New England (6-2)

 Tom Brady's first half was one of the worst I've seen recently.  Then he comes out in the second half and magically turns transcendent.  It's a bit unbelievable, really.  Somehow, the Pats are 6-2, Gronk is back and playing fairly well, and Brady is usually unflappable.  Even when he screws up, he somehow finds a way to come back and stick it to the opposition, as he did on Sunday against Miami.

8.) Indianapolis (5-2)
 Coming off a bye, the Colts face a reeling team in need of something.  I can't say that I see Luck losing to the Texans at this point, though.  Especially not against a third-string QB.  They had the bye to get rid of the high of the win against Denver, so there should be no excuses.  Now they have to get Trent Richardson some more carries and better results.  And it wouldn't hurt for Luck to throw a few TD's either.  The more the merrier, after all.

9.) Green Bay (5-2)
 I've insisted recently that Rodgers is an elite QB, despite his tendency to disappear for stretches this season.  Last night he threw one of his better games, with sharp passing throughout the night.  Granted, it came against Minnesota (he's really taken advantage of weak defenses), but I'm not going to penalize for that.  They look like they're rounding into form, but the defense might be a concern later on.  Not sure, but maybe.

10.) Detroit (5-3)
 Four turnovers and they still won.  Kind of amazing when you think about it, since that almost never happens.  They didn't force a Dallas turnover either, they just pushed the ball down the field numerous times, especially in the critical late-game situation that fairly well defines Cowboy ineptitude.  Matt Stafford is getting closer to being great now that he finally has a decent running back behind him.  Calvin Johnson was sublime with over 300 yards receiving.  How does that happen?  I can't say, but I don't expect it to stop.

Three Games to Watch (Week 9):
Pittsburgh @ New England (CBS)
Indianapolis @ Houston (NBC)
Chicago @ Green Bay (ESPN)

That's all for this week.  See you next week.

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 1

Welcome to the first edition of the Rankings.  I've been doing these for a few years now elsewhere, but with the start of this blog and the termination of user blogs elsewhere, I've decided to do them here from now on.

Week 1 of the NFL season is usually tough to parse out.  Drawing anything definite from it can be foolhardy.  Generally, my Rankings don't aspire to predict anything.  I don't know where these teams are going any more than any other writer that does these.  I just look at who performed the best and rank them accordingly.

That said, there was a lot of sloppy play.  A point was made by one of the various voices I heard on the weekend that this is what we get after four preseason games.  I'm not in favor of the preseason and I'm not sure it really makes that big of a difference.  There'll always be some rust in the first week of games.  Some teams just dug holes that were too big to climb out of.

Here are the Rankings for Week 1:

1.) Denver (1-0)

 Nobody else played better.  Peyton Manning had the strongest performance of the "elite" QB's and the defense held fairly strong in the second half.  Even without Von Miller, they were able to get pressure on Joe Flacco.  That said, I don't think Baltimore is in too precarious a position.  It looks like the Chiefs are the only serious competition for the Broncos.

2.) New Orleans (1-0)

 Sure, it was at home, but the Saints had one of the more impressive wins of the week.  They took out the Falcons right at the end by forcing an INT out of Matt Ryan.  Drew Brees looked as solid as usual while the defense held the Falcons to 17 points.  The NFC South should be quite competitive.

3.) San Francisco (1-0)

 Another good team, another home win.  The numbers might say otherwise, but based on the eye test, the 49ers defense made Aaron Rodgers look pretty bad.  Colin Kaepernick has started to prove that he's no fluke and doesn't require gimmicks to be a successful passer.  I'm not convinced he'll be a great QB just yet, but it is impossible to ignore the connection he and WR Anquan Boldin have made.  Any question about who Kaepernick is going to throw to seems to have been answered.

4.) New England (1-0)

 It was ugly, but somehow Tom Brady and the Patriots managed to beat the Bills.  I guess having to remake the offense on the fly will be a bit of trouble for the first couple weeks, at least until Gronkowski returns.  I'm not a huge fan of driving for a field goal to finish the game.  The Pats' kicker botched a couple of those last season as well, so my confidence wasn't all that high. Luckily, they pulled it out and start at the top.

5.) Indianapolis (1-0)

 One of the most cited stats of the weekend: in 17 starts, QB Andrew Luck has 8 4th quarter comebacks.  It came against the Raiders this time.  They weren't expected to do much besides fight for the #1 overall pick in the draft, but Terrelle Pryor played well enough that it might not happen.  While some viewers are down on the Colts, I think another playoff berth is likely, especially if Luck continues to produce in the clutch.

6.) Seattle (1-0)

 Russell Wilson and the Seahawks scored 12 points and won.  Woooooooo! I know, going across the country to play the early game (1PM eastern, 10AM pacific) is tough, but Seattle made it look even harder.  Carolina's offense might not be so hot, but their defense is for real.  Wilson and company have a tougher test in Week 2 as they take on the 49ers.  They'll be in Seattle for that game, so maybe we'll see a better performance.

7.) Chicago (1-0)

 It's not easy to play well on defense in the NFL.  One of the best ways to do so is to create turnovers.  The Bears have been excellent at this for years. Despite having trouble with Bengals WR A.J. Green, the defense was able to contribute by forcing Andy Dalton into mistakes.  The Bengals were the darling of most of the media, with prediction of making or winning the Super Bowl. Chicago definitely dropped them down a peg.  I'm still hesitant to get behind the Bears; I don't know much about new coach Trestman and have never been a fan of Jay Cutler.  If their defense keeps creating turnovers, they'll always have a chance.

8.) Detroit (1-0)

 It's hard to believe the Lions didn't give away that game.  Then again, considering who they were playing, it might not be a huge surprise.  Good QB play is the hallmark of today's NFL, where offense has been given various advantages over the defense.  I'm not convinced about Matt Stafford, but he's clearly better than Christian Ponder.  Ponder still doesn't look like he's ready for prime time, even with the best RB in the game behind him.  Stafford wasn't exactly error-free, but with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush (who would have thought?) alongside him, he's got a chance to do some good things.

9.) Kansas City (1-0)

 I get the feeling that there are expectations in KC, even while various outlets are trying to temper them.  They have a new coach and QB and were on the road playing what has to be one of the worst teams in the league.  The fact that a beatdown resulted should really be no surprise.  The Chiefs were a team with talent, but they lacked the QB play necessary to make them good. Alex Smith is another guy I'm not entirely sold on, but he played well enough and has put down a template for success.  Still, it'd probably be better for him (not to mention his health) if there's more balance in the offense.

10.) Dallas (1-0)

 How hard is it to force six turnovers and barely win?  Apparently not very hard.  The Cowboys were 0-4 against the Giants at newly-christened AT&T Stadium before Sunday.  And despite forcing those turnovers and making Eli Manning look fairly bad for the balance, the offense mostly sputtered.  This has to improve if the Cowboys are going to be contenders.  Turnovers have to result in touchdowns.  The defense changed from 3-4 to 4-3 over the offseason as well.  I wasn't in favor of this change; it does nothing to address the real problem the Cowboys have.  Despite forcing all those turnovers, the defense wasn't that impressive.  When Eli got his legs under him, finally, he carved up the defense at will and did pretty much whatever he wanted.

Three Games to Watch (Week 2):

St. Louis @ Atlanta (FOX)

Denver @ NY Giants (CBS)

San Francisco @ Seattle (NBC)

That's all for this week.  See you next week.