September 17, 2013

2013 NFL Power Rankings, Week 2

Already, a mere quarter of the teams in the NFL are undefeated.  There were some unfavorable matchups, of course, and those didn't go the way that one might have liked.  There were also a number of matchups betwen 1-0 teams that meant that one of the teams involved wasn't getting out without a loss. Thankfully, there were no ties, so nothing has been completely ruined just yet.

So far, there appears to be one great team, a few bad teams, and a whole bunch that could go either way.  It makes predicting the results difficult. While that's not what I do here, I do make straight up picks every week for every game.  I'm 20-12 after two weeks.  The proverbial monkeys writing Shakespeare could do better, so I'm not bragging.

At any rate, there was a lot of action to be had and much of it is pertinent here.  One note on the Monday night game that just occurred as I write this, though: people who were high on Cincinnati as a potential Super Bowl team, it might be a good time to take a step back.  Andy Dalton may eventually be the guy to lead the Bengals there, but it sure doesn't look like he'll do it in 2013.

Here are the Rankings for Week 2:

1.) Denver (2-0) [no change]
 Peyton Manning is an offensive machine.  He's now 3-0 against little bro Eli and would be the consensus pick for MVP...if anyone in their right mind is deciding such things already.  He's just starting to make his case, I get that. But if they finish like they've started, would anyone else even make sense?

2.) New Orleans (2-0) [no change]
 Sometimes, you just get lucky.  Drew Brees had not looked anywhere near his best through 59 minutes, including a weather delay that lasted over an hour. But when the time to win the game came around, he tossed a pinpoint pass to Colston and got the Saints in range for a game-winning FG.  Amazing, if it wasn't expected.  I'm not sure what the issue is when the team is outside, but it's something that should be corrected soon, given that the Super Bowl will be played in Jersey.  Of course, a lot can happen in the next couple of months, including the Saints getting knocked on their collective behinds.  But I suspect that they'll be up there among the contenders in the NFC.

3.) New England (2-0) [no change]
 Speaking of ugly wins, the Patriots had the ugliest.  Favored by two TD's, Tom Brady threw 13 completions to Julian Edelman and somehow made do with the rest of his receivers being what they are: untested rookies.  I hear that eventually, all of this experience will help the team round into form and be a juggernaut late in the season.  I'm not so confident about that.  What I like is that they're 2-0, with both victories against their weak division.  Let's see how Buffalo and Miami get on before saying that the AFC East is "improved" or other such.

4.) Seattle (2-0) [+2]
 Here's the problem with the perception that people are "doubting" a team like Seattle: they're on the West Coast, and thus have to travel more mileage than most, they put up 12 points against Carolina (seriously?), and only seem to show their true stuff at home. Unless they get home-field in the playoffs, I can't get that excited about Seattle as a true contender.  I'm probably guilty of "doubting" them as well, but as usual, I remain unrepentant about it.  Am I being an idiot?  Then prove me wrong.  So far, they have one questionable win, and one possibly great win (with the caveat that it was at home with their ridiculous enhanced crowd noise stadium design).

5.) Chicago (2-0) [+2]
 Given the erratic play of QB Jay Cutler, I'm not sure what to think about the Bears.  They could well be 0-2 had Cincy or Minnesota actually been able to close the deal.  But because neither of those teams could play a full 60 minutes, Chicago had chances to win games and capitalized on them. They're obviously not in the company of Denver just yet, but they don't have to be. With a slight lead on Green Bay, all they really have to do is maintain. Maybe a split is all they'll need.  Probably better to take both if they can get 'em, though...who knows when they'll stop being lucky.

6.) Kansas City (2-0) [+3]
 Andy Reid is 2-0 in new digs.  He and the Chiefs go to Philly on Thursday to see which team is better in Week 3.  My money would go on the Chiefs, given just how bad Philly's defense appears to be.  I can't really say that I'm "surprised" that the Chiefs are 2-0.  I mean, once they brought in Reid and QB Alex Smith, it seemed natural that they'd start out strong.  How will they finish?  Well, that's another story.  I figured the AFC West wouldn't be terribly strong, but I've been wrong about that to date.  The three teams other than Denver look solid.  Things are fluid, though.  So who's good today might not be good next week.  However, if the Chiefs start out 3-0, they'll be gaining notice.

7.) Indianapolis (1-1) [-3]
 A loss necessitates a drop in the Rankings.  So the Colts fall back just a bit. Not a terrible loss, by any means, but it could be a bit of foreshadowing.  My inclination is to say that Indy will be fine, that somehow QB Andrew Luck will get better protection and that Hilton and Fleener will make the necessary catches in close and late situations.  But there's a bit of doubt, I suppose. Then again, they haven't played a division game yet.

8.) San Francisco (1-1) [-3]
 Disappointing all around for the 49ers.  QB Colin Kaepernick had his worst game as a starter, with three INT's and a general inability to get anything done throwing the ball.  Seattle really made him look ordinary.  While he might have been exposed playing in that stadium, I highly doubt he'll look that bad for the rest of the season.  After all, the 49ers don't have to go there again, unless they meet Seattle in the playoffs and the Seahawks have home-field advantage.  As discussed above, I'm not terribly confident that that'll happen.  So it's a bad loss, but not one that will reverberate much.

9.) Miami (2-0) [-]
 One of the new entrants this week, Miami has now beaten Cleveland and Indianapolis.  A solid start for a team that people really didn't expect much out of.  WR Mike Wallace rebounded nicely.  I think there's a middle ground that he'll hit for the rest of the season: not as bad as the first game, but not quite as good as the second.  The defense seems solid, so the key for this team, like just about every other team in the league, is QB play.  I'm not sure if Ryan Tannehill can get it done for 16 games, but I've been wrong before.

10.) Houston (2-0) [-]
 Believe me, I'd much rather include a team that won but is 1-1, like Green Bay or Atlanta.  Houston has won both its games in fluke-y fashion and doesn't look anything like a contender.  However, they're 2-0, and one of only eight teams to be undefeated after a mere two weeks, so they're in for now. Having to go to overtime against Tennessee is unimpressive, even less so when one considers that the Titans were up 24-16 and had a 4th & 1 that they punted on to gift the Texans a chance to win.

Three Games to Watch (Week 3):
Houston @ Baltimore (CBS)
Atlanta @ Miami (FOX)
Indianapolis @ San Francisco (CBS)

That's all for this week.  See you next week.

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