Week 3 was fairly unpredictable. As usual, I try to forecast the results (straight up) for each game each week. I was 9-7 this week, which is one game over .500, and thus inexcusably terrible. The monkeys writing Shakespeare would laugh me out of the building. There were some matchups where I just couldn't pick the winning team, though. Last year, I got burned on a Thursday by Carolina when I picked them to beat the Giants. This year, they played on Sunday and it turned quickly into a laughable rout for the Panthers. Didn't see that coming.
Anyway, there now appear to be two great teams, one in the NFC, one in the AFC. Seattle looks to be unbeatable at home. How they handle their road schedule will determine how real they are. Denver looks like they can beat anyone, anywhere, at any time. Peyton Manning's numbers are unreal so far and he's just starting to play well through the entire game.
If you notice, two teams have left the Rankings this week. They are the disappointing San Francisco 49ers, and the equally disappointing but much luckier Houston Texans (who damn well ought to be 0-3). Both teams looked lifeless yesterday and lost rather convincingly. The teams that replace them are Baltimore and Dallas. I also considered Tennessee and Detroit for the last spot. Dallas leads a division (granted, the worst division since the good ol' days of the NFC West not that long ago) and that was enough to give them an edge over the other two. Honestly, I don't think Dallas, Detroit, or Tennessee will finish the year in the top 10. So in that sense, it's kind of cosmetic.
Here are the Rankings for Week 3:
Anyway, there now appear to be two great teams, one in the NFC, one in the AFC. Seattle looks to be unbeatable at home. How they handle their road schedule will determine how real they are. Denver looks like they can beat anyone, anywhere, at any time. Peyton Manning's numbers are unreal so far and he's just starting to play well through the entire game.
If you notice, two teams have left the Rankings this week. They are the disappointing San Francisco 49ers, and the equally disappointing but much luckier Houston Texans (who damn well ought to be 0-3). Both teams looked lifeless yesterday and lost rather convincingly. The teams that replace them are Baltimore and Dallas. I also considered Tennessee and Detroit for the last spot. Dallas leads a division (granted, the worst division since the good ol' days of the NFC West not that long ago) and that was enough to give them an edge over the other two. Honestly, I don't think Dallas, Detroit, or Tennessee will finish the year in the top 10. So in that sense, it's kind of cosmetic.
Here are the Rankings for Week 3:
1.) Denver (3-0) [no change]
Let's dismiss whatever outlandish stats Peyton Manning is on pace to pile up. The likelihood is that he won't do it, just based on history. At some point, the Broncos will slow down. Whether that's in Week 13, Week 15, whatever, it will eventually happen because they'll have nothing more to prove and head coach John Fox is probably tired of all this passing anyway. I mostly kid about that. But if this team starts out 12-0 or better, they'll eventually start resting players. We've seen it before and we'll see it again, most likely.
Let's dismiss whatever outlandish stats Peyton Manning is on pace to pile up. The likelihood is that he won't do it, just based on history. At some point, the Broncos will slow down. Whether that's in Week 13, Week 15, whatever, it will eventually happen because they'll have nothing more to prove and head coach John Fox is probably tired of all this passing anyway. I mostly kid about that. But if this team starts out 12-0 or better, they'll eventually start resting players. We've seen it before and we'll see it again, most likely.
2.) New Orleans (3-0) [no change]
It looked like Drew Brees was having trouble at points in that game against Arizona. Yet the score and his stats indicate that it wasn't much trouble. Certainly, it helps to have TE Jimmy Graham on the field and in a contract push. Next Monday's game against the Dolphins ought to be one of the best of the young season and will have an impact on each team going forward, I think. So far, the AFC has a commanding lead on the supposedly better NFC.
It looked like Drew Brees was having trouble at points in that game against Arizona. Yet the score and his stats indicate that it wasn't much trouble. Certainly, it helps to have TE Jimmy Graham on the field and in a contract push. Next Monday's game against the Dolphins ought to be one of the best of the young season and will have an impact on each team going forward, I think. So far, the AFC has a commanding lead on the supposedly better NFC.
3.) New England (3-0) [no change]
Again, not a pretty game for Tom Brady and his mostly young receivers. But they came out of it with a 23-3 win and made Tampa Bay look foolish. With the Dolphins 3-0 at the same time, there's no chance to rest on their laurels. They have to get better and do it fast. I suppose the receivers are moving apace, but Dobson's continued drops have to be a concern. Still, at 3-0, they're one of a slight few that doesn't have much to worry about.
Again, not a pretty game for Tom Brady and his mostly young receivers. But they came out of it with a 23-3 win and made Tampa Bay look foolish. With the Dolphins 3-0 at the same time, there's no chance to rest on their laurels. They have to get better and do it fast. I suppose the receivers are moving apace, but Dobson's continued drops have to be a concern. Still, at 3-0, they're one of a slight few that doesn't have much to worry about.
4.) Seattle (3-0) [no change]
To be fair, putting up 45 on the Jaguars is not a huge accomplishment. What it indicates is that this is a Seahawks team that doesn't back down, even when a patsy is coming to town. They're not looking ahead to the next week or next month, they're going to put a beatdown on the patsy and then move on to the next opponent. After a shaky first week, the Seahawks have had two home games with excellent results. Thus, they look like the best team in the NFC. Speaking of which, the NFC is top-heavy at the moment, with the division leaders (Seattle being the best of them right now) looking like the only teams worth a damn. And speaking of Seattle's division, the rest of it looks pretty stinky at the moment after being highly lauded as the best in the league over the summer. Just goes to show you that when the games start, things change quickly and none of the offseason bullshit means a goddamn thing.
5.) Chicago (3-0) [no change]
I doubt I'll ever be sold on the Bears while Jay Cutler remains the QB. That trend continued through last night and probably through the rest of this season as well. He started out fine, but then had some trouble with clock management on the first drive. And really, he didn't play that well overall, nor was he consistent. But he did make the necessary plays and took advantage of gifts from the Steelers. The Bears D is solid and uses the one thing it can, forcing turnovers, to its benefit, scoring when the offense can't. Defense appears to be legislated out of the league, yet when teams can force turnovers and turn them into touchdowns, it's a boon all around.
I doubt I'll ever be sold on the Bears while Jay Cutler remains the QB. That trend continued through last night and probably through the rest of this season as well. He started out fine, but then had some trouble with clock management on the first drive. And really, he didn't play that well overall, nor was he consistent. But he did make the necessary plays and took advantage of gifts from the Steelers. The Bears D is solid and uses the one thing it can, forcing turnovers, to its benefit, scoring when the offense can't. Defense appears to be legislated out of the league, yet when teams can force turnovers and turn them into touchdowns, it's a boon all around.
6.) Kansas City (3-0) [no change]
Depending on who you ask, the Chiefs are either the least impressive 3-0 team or second least. In a QB-driven league, having a QB that can't (or won't) throw it more than five yards downfield is a problem. KC's defense is very good through three games, but if Alex Smith and the offense start sputtering for any length of time, they're going to get tired out and become less effective. I don't trust Alex Smith's ability to lead long drives consistently, because he refuses to take shots down the field. Not only that, it is a very tiresome offense to watch, because it's so boring. People will cite statistics that tell you Smith is a "good" QB. As usual, this is an example of statistics being used to hustle people. Watch how he plays and then tell me how great he supposedly is. Even with Aaron Rodgers at 1-2, I'm willing to bet 99% of football fans would take him on their team over Alex Smith.
Depending on who you ask, the Chiefs are either the least impressive 3-0 team or second least. In a QB-driven league, having a QB that can't (or won't) throw it more than five yards downfield is a problem. KC's defense is very good through three games, but if Alex Smith and the offense start sputtering for any length of time, they're going to get tired out and become less effective. I don't trust Alex Smith's ability to lead long drives consistently, because he refuses to take shots down the field. Not only that, it is a very tiresome offense to watch, because it's so boring. People will cite statistics that tell you Smith is a "good" QB. As usual, this is an example of statistics being used to hustle people. Watch how he plays and then tell me how great he supposedly is. Even with Aaron Rodgers at 1-2, I'm willing to bet 99% of football fans would take him on their team over Alex Smith.
7.) Indianapolis (2-1) [no change]
I think the most surprising result of the week was Indy going to SF and laying the smack down for 60 minutes. Most of us (i.e. everyone not living in Indiana) expected the 49ers to bounce back and show some fire as they got back into the division race. Instead, they were derailed by Andrew Luck and his questionable group of weapons. Clearly, they do not possess the best team in the AFC, or even their division. But they outplayed the 49ers from the opening whistle and looked really good doing it. Will they win the AFC South? Probably not, but I'll be rooting for them to do it. I don't think Tennessee is for real and the Texans looked like a joke in Baltimore, but they might start pulling it together soon, to my chagrin.
I think the most surprising result of the week was Indy going to SF and laying the smack down for 60 minutes. Most of us (i.e. everyone not living in Indiana) expected the 49ers to bounce back and show some fire as they got back into the division race. Instead, they were derailed by Andrew Luck and his questionable group of weapons. Clearly, they do not possess the best team in the AFC, or even their division. But they outplayed the 49ers from the opening whistle and looked really good doing it. Will they win the AFC South? Probably not, but I'll be rooting for them to do it. I don't think Tennessee is for real and the Texans looked like a joke in Baltimore, but they might start pulling it together soon, to my chagrin.
8.) Miami (3-0) [+1]
Apparently, Ryan Tannehill is one of the young QB's proving to be quite good if not great. I am skeptical at best. Sure, they beat an Atlanta team that was moving the ball up and down the field at will. They've also beaten Cleveland and Indianapolis on the road. So their resume isn't bad, by any means. I just don't think that Tannehill has the stuff to be a great QB just yet (if ever). Maybe he'll prove me wrong. But until they beat the Patriots, everything with the Dolphins is really just conjecture. In order to win the AFC East, they have to beat the Patriots.
Apparently, Ryan Tannehill is one of the young QB's proving to be quite good if not great. I am skeptical at best. Sure, they beat an Atlanta team that was moving the ball up and down the field at will. They've also beaten Cleveland and Indianapolis on the road. So their resume isn't bad, by any means. I just don't think that Tannehill has the stuff to be a great QB just yet (if ever). Maybe he'll prove me wrong. But until they beat the Patriots, everything with the Dolphins is really just conjecture. In order to win the AFC East, they have to beat the Patriots.
9.) Baltimore (2-1) [-]
They just might have exposed the Texans on Sunday. But it's not like Baltimore is playing perfect football, either. Their offense still has a ways to go before I can consider it to be anything more than adequate. In fact, for much of this young season, it's been quite inadequate. They can't run the ball, either with Ray Rice or without him, and Joe Flacco is having to throw the ball far too much. I'm not a huge proponent of the running game, but it's necessary to keep the QB from getting killed or having his arm fall off from overuse. I've never been all that high on Flacco and think the Ravens are getting the just desserts from being "forced" to pay him all that money after winning the Super Bowl. Face it, Flacco isn't that great, he just rose to the moment like Eli Manning (although Flacco was considerably less lucky).
They just might have exposed the Texans on Sunday. But it's not like Baltimore is playing perfect football, either. Their offense still has a ways to go before I can consider it to be anything more than adequate. In fact, for much of this young season, it's been quite inadequate. They can't run the ball, either with Ray Rice or without him, and Joe Flacco is having to throw the ball far too much. I'm not a huge proponent of the running game, but it's necessary to keep the QB from getting killed or having his arm fall off from overuse. I've never been all that high on Flacco and think the Ravens are getting the just desserts from being "forced" to pay him all that money after winning the Super Bowl. Face it, Flacco isn't that great, he just rose to the moment like Eli Manning (although Flacco was considerably less lucky).
10.) Dallas (2-1) [-]
Despite leading the NFC East, I think I have the least faith in the Cowboys of these ten. They played well against the Rams after coughing it up late last week against the Chiefs. But I think teams with tough defenses (like the one in KC) won't have much of a problem forcing Romo into costly mistakes that end up turning the result in their favor. But right now, the offense and defense are clicking at the same time and Romo is receiving consistent protection from the O-line. All they have to do is keep that up and keep the wins coming.
Despite leading the NFC East, I think I have the least faith in the Cowboys of these ten. They played well against the Rams after coughing it up late last week against the Chiefs. But I think teams with tough defenses (like the one in KC) won't have much of a problem forcing Romo into costly mistakes that end up turning the result in their favor. But right now, the offense and defense are clicking at the same time and Romo is receiving consistent protection from the O-line. All they have to do is keep that up and keep the wins coming.
Three Games to Watch (Week 4):
Seattle @ Houston (FOX)
New England @ Atlanta (NBC)
Miami @ New Orleans (ESPN)
New England @ Atlanta (NBC)
Miami @ New Orleans (ESPN)
That's all for this week. See you next week.
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